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One outcome.
Three possible effects.
Start with a small calculation. A scenario tells you what follows from an assumption; it does not tell you which outcome will happen.
What if the refund arrives?
Illustrative example, not a saved case. Entries and calculations stay in this page; no account, analytics or browser storage is used.
And why not count it as received already?
A provider saying “we issued the refund” is different from a settled credit in your recipient record. Acknowledgement alone establishes neither. In a saved case, Utile keeps these criteria separate, shows evidence exclusions and preserves corrections.
No bank or inbox is connected here. The example does not read any real evidence or assign probabilities.